Clean hydrogen is a key piece in the global energy transition, but its large-scale adoption still faces economic and infrastructure barriers. The Hydrogen Council’s “Hydrogen: Closing the Cost Gap” report in collaboration with McKinsey & Company (March 2025) discusses the challenges and opportunities for clean hydrogen deployment in the EU, East Asia, and the US, with the aim of closing the cost gap versus conventional alternatives.

1. Key Definitions

The report establishes different categories of hydrogen according to its production method:

• Renewable Hydrogen: Produced by electrolysis with renewable energy.
• Low-Emission Hydrogen: Generated with emission reduction technologies, such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) reforming, natural gas pyrolysis, or electrolysis with non-renewable electricity.
• Clean hydrogen: Includes both renewable and low-emission hydrogen.
• Grey Hydrogen: Produced from fossil fuels without emissions mitigation.

These definitions are crucial to understanding regulatory frameworks and incentive policies at the global level.

2. Demand Landscape and Decarbonization

By 2030, demand for hydrogen and its derivatives in the EU, East Asia and the US could reach 34 Mt per year in a <2°C warming scenario.  Of this amount, 8 Mt per year already have a business case supported by existing policies. Approximately 75% of demand would come from established industrial uses (refining, ammonia), while emerging sectors such as aviation and shipping would account for the remaining 25%. The decarbonization of this demand would allow an annual reduction of 250 MtCO₂e.

3. Demand Segmentation

The report classifies the demand for clean hydrogen into three segments:

1. Immediate Opportunities (~8 Mt p.a.): Uses where current policies already make clean hydrogen viable, such as refining and ammonia.
2. Overcoming the Gap (~13 Mt p.a.): Industrial sectors that will require greater infrastructure deployment and cost reduction.
3. Big Challenges, Big Rewards (~13 Mt p.a.): End uses with few decarbonization alternatives, such as aviation and industrial heat, that still face a significant cost gap.

4. Key Policies and their Impact

Various policies in the EU, US, Japan, and South Korea are driving the adoption of clean hydrogen:

• EU REDIII Directive: Obliges industry to use 42.5% renewable hydrogen by 2030.
• EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM): Penalises products with high CO₂ emissions.
• Japan Contract for Difference (CfD): Subsidizes the cost difference between fossil fuels and clean alternatives.
• U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA): Provides tax credits of up to $3/kg of clean H₂ and funds CCS projects.

5. Cost Gap and Competitiveness

By 2030, the production costs of renewable hydrogen will range from 3-11 USD/kg, while low-emission hydrogen will cost 1.2-3.5 USD/kg. Commercial viability will depend on geography and end-use segment, with potential market values between 1-12 USD/kg H₂e.

8 Mt p.a. demand with a positive business case supported by policies by 2030, mainly in the EU and East Asia. Other 13 Mt p.a. could be competitive with improvements in costs and infrastructure, especially in the U.S.

6. Key Actions to Close the Cost Gap

The report suggests measures to accelerate the adoption of clean hydrogen:

• Effective implementation of existing policies.
• Expansion of CCS infrastructure and hydrogen transportation.
• Economic incentives for emerging sectors with higher barriers to adoption.

7. Conclusions

Despite the challenges, current policies could catalyze the adoption of clean hydrogen by 2030. The EU, US, Japan and South Korea will be the main drivers, accounting for 30% of projected global demand. However, scaling up policy support and strategic investments will be needed to close the cost gap and cement clean hydrogen as a key solution for global decarbonization.